Recommendation system to determine suitable and viable hiking routes: a prototype application in Sierra de las Nieves Nature Reserve (southern Spain)     

Jesús Vías  José Rolland  María Luisa Gómez  Carmen Ocaña  Ana Luque 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2018,20(3):275-294

This paper describes a system for recommending hiking routes to help manage hiking activities in a protected area. The system proposes various routes, based on five criteria that maximize some aspects of hikers’ requirements (by analyzing the viability and difficulty of the trails) and also those of protected areas managers (by proposals to relieve congestion in areas already used for hiking and to promote awareness of new ones, as a contribution to environmental education). The recommendation system uses network analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic information system by free software tools: PgRouting, PostgreSQL and PostGIS. This system has been tested in Sierra de las Nieves Nature Reserve (Andalusia, Spain). Of the 182 routes obtained by the system, 62 (34%) are considered viable for hikers in Sierra de las Nieves, taking into account the type of user most likely to visit this protected area. Most routes have a high difficulty level, which is coherent with the mountainous character of the protected area.  相似文献   

Characterization of a landslide-triggered debris flow at a rainforest-covered mountain region in Brazil     

Cabral  Victor Carvalho  Reis  Fábio Augusto Gomes Vieira  D’Affonseca  Fernando Mazo  Lucía  Ana  dos Santos Corrêa  Claudia Vanessa  Veloso  Vinicius  Gramani  Marcelo Fischer  Ogura  Agostinho Tadashi  Lazaretti  Andrea Fregolente  Vemado  Felipe  Pereira Filho  Augusto José  dos Santos  Claudia Cristina  Lopes  Eymar Silva Sampaio  Rabaco  Lis Maria Reoni  do Carmo Giordano  Lucilia  Zarfl  Christiane 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(3):3021-3043

Natural Hazards - Debris flows represent great hazard to humans due to their high destructive power. Understanding their hydrogeomorphic dynamics is fundamental in hazard assessment studies,...  相似文献   

Risk perception in Unión Juárez,Chiapas, Mexico     

Ponce-Pacheco  Ana B.  Novelo-Casanova  David A.  Agustin-Ortíz  Ivonne N.  Garduño-González  Ana B. 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(1):855-879

The proximity to the Tacaná volcano, to the subduction zone between the Cocos and North America plates, to the Mexican coast, and to the active geologic Polochic-Motagua fault makes the population of Union Juarez (UJ), Chiapas, Mexico, exposed to many natural hazards including hurricanes, earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. We assessed the risk perception of UJ, and our findings indicate that the community has moderate level of risk perception according to the scale of the National Center for Disaster Prevention of Mexico. The UJ’s risk perception is mainly dependent on gender and religion because females unlike males in case of disasters and emergencies: (1) believe that it is necessary to improve their preparedness; (2) trust the local civil protection authorities; (3) would know how to respond; (4) would follow the established protocols; and (5) would not relocate. On the other hand, non-religious people know better the protocols to follow in the event of disasters than the religious population. Besides, the community of UJ reasonably perceives earthquakes and extreme rains as the main hazards that they are exposed to, while volcanic hazards are considered less important although the town is located very close to the Tacaná volcano that has been active during the last 30 years. The local population lacks of proper knowledge and resources to develop adequate disaster mitigation plans. Surprisingly, the work of the local civil protection is considered poor. Our results can be used for local authorities as a tool to strength the disaster prevention actions in UJ.

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Exploring the interactions between vulnerability,resilience and adaptation to extreme temperatures     

Nunes  Ana Raquel 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(3):2261-2293

Natural Hazards - Proposed ways of improving adaptation to climate change have most often been supported by narrowly framed and separate analysis. This article investigates how different levels of...  相似文献   

A combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertime     

Bergonse  Rafaello  Oliveira  Sandra  Gonçalves  Ana  Nunes  Sílvia  da Câmara  Carlos  Zêzere  José Luis 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(3):2545-2573

Natural Hazards - Wildfire susceptibility and hazard models based on drivers that change only on a multiyear timescale are considered of a structural nature. They ignore specific short-term...  相似文献   

Application of Binary Permeability Fields for the Study of $${\hbox {CO}_{2}}$$ Leakage from Geological Carbon Storage in Saline Aquifers of the Michigan Basin     

Ana González-Nicolás  Domenico Baù  Brent M. Cody 《Mathematical Geosciences》2018,50(5):525-547

The feasibility of geological carbon storage (GCS) sites depends on their capacity to retain safely \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\). While deep saline formations and depleted gas/oil reservoirs are good candidates to sequester \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\), gas/oil reservoirs typically have a limited storage capacity compared to ideal targets (\(\sim \) 1 Mt/year) considered for \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) disposal (Celia et al. in Water Resour Res 51(9):6846–6892, 2015. doi: 10.1002/2015WR017609). In this respect, deep saline aquifers are considered more appropriate formations for GCS, but present the disadvantage of having limited characterization data. In particular, information about the continuity of the overlying sealing formations (caprock) is often sparse if it exists at all. In this work, a study of \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage is conducted for a candidate GCS site located in the Michigan Basin, whose sealing properties of the caprock are practically unknown. Quantification of uncertainty on \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage from the storage formation is achieved through a Monte Carlo simulation approach, relying on the use of a computationally efficient semi-analytical leakage model based upon the solution derived by Nordbotten et al. (Environ Sci Technol 43(3):743–749, 2009), which assumes leakage occurs across “passive” wells intersecting caprock layers. A categorical indicator Kriging simulator is developed and implemented to represent the caprock sealing properties and model the permeability uncertainty. Binary fields of caprock permeability are generated and exhibit mostly low permeability, with sparsely-occurring local high permeability areas where brine and \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) may leak out of the storage formation. In addition, the feasibility of extending the use of the semi-analytical model to large-area leakage pathways is studied. This work advances a methodology for preliminary uncertainty quantification of \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage at sites of GCS with little or no information on the sealing properties of the caprock. The implemented analysis shows that, for the considered site, \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage may not be negligible even for relatively low (\(\sim \) 1%) probabilities of finding permeable inclusions in the caprock and highlights the importance of being able to characterize caprock sealing properties over large areas.  相似文献   

Salt tectonics vs. inversion tectonics: The anticlines of the western Maestrazgo revisited (eastern Iberian Chain,Spain)     

Carlos L. Liesa  Antonio M. Casas-Sainz  Marcos Aurell  José L. Simón  Ana R. Soria 《Basin Research》2023,35(1):295-335

Many works in the last decades underline the role of evaporites, not just as a conditioning factor but as the engine for subsidence and eventually basin inversion. The western Mediterranean alpine ranges are being investigated in this regard because of the presence of discontinuous units of Permian to Triassic evaporites, deposited in the western Tethys basins. This work presents a thorough analysis of two particular structures (Cañada Vellida and Miravete anticlines) in the intraplate Maestrazgo basin (eastern Iberian Chain, Spain) in which evidence to support their reinterpretation as salt-driven structures have been recently reported. Our analysis includes (i) a comprehensive stratigraphic and structural study of the folds along their entire trace, (ii) the compilation of thickness and distribution of evaporite–bearing and supraevaporite units, paying special attention to changes in the thickness of units in relation to anticlines, and (iii) the study of fault patterns, sometimes in relation to the mechanical stratigraphy. All three aspects are also documented and discussed on a regional scale. The new data and interpretations reported here reinforce the extensional origin of the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous basins, and the role of regional extensional tectonics as the responsible for the development of first-order syn-sedimentary normal fault zones driving the formation and evolution of sub-basins. These basins were subsequently inverted and deformed, including the formation of complex, box-geometry anticlines that, in their turn, controlled deposition in Cenozoic basins. The review of the arguments that support the alternative of salt tectonics for the origin of such anticlines has allowed us to delve into the sedimentary and tectonic evolution of the inverted extensional basins and to propose a specific model for the development of these faulted anticlines. The role of salt levels and other interlayered detachments in the structuring of sedimentary basins and their inversion is also pondered. The observations in the eastern Iberian Chain reported here have implications to assess ongoing reinterpretations in terms of salt tectonics in other alpine basins and ranges of the western Mediterranean.  相似文献   

Effect of increasing temperatures on cooling systems. A case of study: European greenhouse sector     

Vanesa Valiño  Adnan Rasheed  Ana M. Tarquis  Alicia Perdigones 《Climatic change》2014,123(2):175-187

The work attempts to assess the effects of global warming on the efficacy of current greenhouse cooling methods following a methodology previously proved for other agricultural buildings. The cooling potential of four greenhouse cooling techniques (natural ventilation, forced ventilation, fogging and shading) were simulated by computer modelling for five European locations, calculating the greenhouse internal air temperature from measured external climate data. Four 2080s scenarios were analysed in these five locations. They were constructed as a combination of General Circulation Models (Had CM3 and ECHAM4) downscaled for Europe with the HIRHAM and RCA3 regional models and driven by the A2 and B2 socio-economic scenarios. The crop considered as reference was tomato. The results showed that, in locations in southern Europe, adding evaporative cooling methods to ventilation and/or shading will be indispensable. In some areas of northern Europe, natural ventilation will no longer be sufficient, and shading or fogging will also be necessary. The economic consequences will be important, over all in the southern locations where water consumption, investment and working costs will be higher and necessary to ensure the crop production.  相似文献   

Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support     

Ana Lopez  Emma B. Suckling  Leonard A. Smith 《Climatic change》2014,122(4):555-566

Pattern scaling offers the promise of exploring spatial details of the climate system response to anthropogenic climate forcings without their full simulation by state-of-the-art Global Climate Models. The circumstances in which pattern scaling methods are capable of delivering on this promise are explored by quantifying its performance in an idealized setting. Given a large ensemble that is assumed to sample the full range of variability and provide quantitative decision-relevant information, the soundness of applying the pattern scaling methodology to generate decision relevant climate scenarios is explored. Pattern scaling is not expected to reproduce its target exactly, of course, and its generic limitations have been well documented since it was first proposed. In this work, using as a particular example the quantification of the risk of heat waves in Southern Europe, it is shown that the magnitude of the error in the pattern scaled estimates can be significant enough to disqualify the use of this approach in quantitative decision-support. This suggests that future application of pattern scaling in climate science should provide decision makers not just a restatement of the assumptions made, but also evidence that the methodology is adequate for purpose in practice for the case under consideration.  相似文献   

Multiple Well Systems with Non‐Darcy Flow     

Ana Mijic  Simon A. Mathias  Tara C. LaForce 《Ground water》2013,51(4):588-596

Optimization of groundwater and other subsurface resources requires analysis of multiple‐well systems. The usual modeling approach is to apply a linear flow equation (e.g., Darcy's law in confined aquifers). In such conditions, the composite response of a system of wells can be determined by summating responses of the individual wells (the principle of superposition). However, if the flow velocity increases, the nonlinear losses become important in the near‐well region and the principle of superposition is no longer valid. This article presents an alternative method for applying analytical solutions of non‐Darcy flow for a single‐ to multiple‐well systems. The method focuses on the response of the central injection well located in an array of equally spaced wells, as it is the well that exhibits the highest pressure change within the system. This critical well can be represented as a single well situated in the center of a closed square domain, the width of which is equal to the well spacing. It is hypothesized that a single well situated in a circular region of the equivalent plan area adequately represents such a system. A test case is presented and compared with a finite‐difference solution for the original problem, assuming that the flow is governed by the nonlinear Forchheimer equation.  相似文献